Statewide sentiments on the economy, immigration, and democracy
TOLEDO – In 2024’s presidential election, Donald Trump carried Ohio – once a battleground – by 11 points, his largest margin of victory in the state. However, a new poll from Bowling Green State University finds that Ohio voters, despite the state’s strong Republican lean, aren’t pleased with everything Trump has done during his first year back in office.
The poll puts Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent, with “a net favorability rating of -19.” 59 percent of those polled, nearly six in ten, believe the country is on the “wrong track,” while only 34 percent viewed things as headed in the right direction.
Midterm issues in focus
It is a midterm election year. For the GOP, that means playing defense if the party is to retain control over the House of Representatives and Senate. For the president himself, that’s the difference between completing his agenda and spending his final two years in office as a lame duck.
But in this economy, in a literal sense, staying in control of Congress is not going to be an easy feat for Republicans. Over half of those polled, 55 percent, believe the economy has gotten worse under President Trump.
Asked to identify the three issues of greatest importance to them, the most frequent responses of those polled were: the economy (42 percent), threats to democracy (32 percent), healthcare (31 percent), immigration (31 percent), and inflation (29 percent). As this and other polls demonstrate, quite clearly, the economy will dominate the midterms.
Ohioans not completely sold on tariffs
Because the economy is of such concern to voters, it’s worth taking a look at how they feel toward the president’s tariffs, a key tenet of his economic policy. In this poll, nearly 60 percent oppose them. An overwhelming majority, 72 percent, believe they will be to the benefit of wealthy people. 66 percent see them as benefitting large corporations.
Important to the popularity of any economic policy is how the median earner feels about it. 69 percent aren’t convinced they’ll directly benefit from Trump’s tariffs. 67 percent believe that neither small businesses, nor labor unions, will benefit. 65 percent don’t think the working class will benefit, while 64 percent say the same about the middle class. Notably, given Ohio’s place in the auto industry, just over half of voters – 56 percent – don’t believe the auto industry stands to benefit from the president’s tariffs.
The party with the advantage
It’s not new for the party in the White House to lose popularity ahead of the midterms, or control of Congress, as a result. In the generic ballot, Democrats have an eight-point advantage over Republicans, with the party – according Dr. Robert Alexander, professor of political science at BGSU – “in a good position to make gains in this year’s midterm election,” based on the university’s polling.
An issue that’s expected to drive Democratic turnout in this year’s midterms: eagerness among the party’s base for checks on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Trump administration, in the midst of a major deportation push, has ramped up ICE operations across the country. Minneapolis, Minn. – which was the target of a multi-agency operation – ended with the deaths of two U.S. citizens, killed by immigration agents, during separate incidents.
In this poll, 90 percent said they’ve been following ICE operations under Trump’s second term. Around 60 percent oppose agents wearing masks, something Democrats are hoping to change in negotiations to fund the Department of Homeland Security. Two-thirds also oppose agents driving in unmarked vehicles, as well as the raids overall. One-fifth of those polled said they know someone who’s participated in a protest against ICE, while one-tenth said they have themselves.
Voters worry about democracy and constitutional rights
64 percent of poll respondents said they believe checks and balances “are currently not effective,” 57 percent said they’re dissatisfied with the state of democracy in the U.S., and 45 percent believe the executive branch has too much power.
Concern about democracy also spilled over into constitutional matters. 58 percent believe freedom from unreasonable search and seizure is “under threat,” while 57 percent said the same about freedom of speech, 55 percent about freedom of the press, and a slight majority, 51 percent, about freedom of assembly.
