What happens with Vance’s seat, democratic party, ballot issues?
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By Andrew Tobias | Signal Statewide
There are plenty of follow-up angles to Nov. 5’s historic presidential election, suffice to say. But then there’s a big, pressing Ohio one – JD Vance’s election as vice president leaves Gov. Mike DeWine with a very important decision.
Here’s more on that and on other big, pressing political questions in the Buckeye State.
What happens to JD Vance’s seat?
Vance was elected to a six-year term in the senate in 2022, but he has to resign to become vice president sometime before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. Under state law, governors have the authority to fill senate vacancies and are required to do so forthwith. Then, whomever DeWine appoints will have to run for election in 2026, including making it through the Republican primary. The winner then would have to run for a full term in 2028.
So whom might DeWine appoint?
DeWine has been tight-lipped on the topic. But he’s laid out his general criteria: He wants his pick to reflect his own views on politics, and he wants the person to be able to get elected in 2026. These two factors look as mutually exclusive as ever. In case you’re wondering where DeWine ranks in Trump World these days, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson called the governor a “midget” a few days ago to the delight of a room full of GOP voters.
One person I’m watching here is wealthy Columbus-area entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Not that I think it’s necessarily likely that DeWine will choose him. But he will have to choose whether NOT to appoint him. Ramaswamy openly lobbied for the Senate job at the Republican National Convention in July and appeared as a guest at an event hosted by Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who used the RNC to network for his campaign to succeed DeWine in 2026.
Picking Ramaswamy would solve a political problem for Husted – whom DeWine wants to help become governor – by ensuring that the businessman won’t run for governor in 2026, never mind that Ramaswamy hasn’t specifically said he might run for the job. Ramaswamy also is more in line with where the Republican Party is today and is popular with Trump’s base. Ramaswamy recently announced that his investment company is moving to Texas but he is personally remaining in Ohio.
(Update: President-elect Donald Trump announced Tuesday that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency)
The reasoning may seem convoluted, but politicians think this way.
Another name to watch is Jane Timken, a former Ohio Republican Party chair who now represents Ohio in the national Republican National Committee. She would be the first woman to represent Ohio in the U.S. Senate if she were appointed, which I think would appeal to DeWine’s sense of wanting to make a mark in state history.
She’s also a Trump political ally, arguably giving her some electability in a GOP primary. But she ran near-last in the 2022 Senate primary. She also failed to get a possible endorsement from Trump because she did not forcefully defend Trump after the U.S. House voted to impeach him in January 2021 with support from a few Republicans.
I personally think DeWine is less likely to consider Secretary of State Frank LaRose or state Sen. Matt Dolan, who both ran for the Republican Senate nomination in March and lost. But both frequently are mentioned by the people who talk about these things.
Finally, DeWine could surprise us and look at someone from his inner circle. He passed over some Republicans lobbying for a vacancy on the Ohio Supreme Court in November 2022 by appointing Joe Deters, who was a Hamilton County prosecutor with no judicial experience.
What is the future of the Ohio Democratic Party?
It seems like every election cycle since 2014 has marked a new bottoming out for Ohio Democrats.
Yet they still haven’t found the bottom.
Trump won Ohio by double digits on Tuesday – expanding on his 2016 and 2020 margins. Three of the four remaining statewide Democratic officeholders lost their seats – Justices Michael Donnelly and Melody Stewart and longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost to businessman Bernie Moreno. Issue 1, the redistricting reform amendment, also failed, and although it wasn’t a Democratic proposal per se, Democrats were definitely pulling for it to pass.
It’s hard to see right now, but 2026 could give state Democrats a chance to rebuild.
Ruling political parties typically see a national backlash in off-year elections. And Democrats have won in other red states. Kansas and Kentucky both saw Democratic governors reelected in the last few years. The governor’s seat will be open, which means Democrats won’t have to try to defeat a well-known incumbent.
So there’s no theoretical reason why Democrats couldn’t compete in Ohio. They just need some good candidates. Although that’s kind of like saying the Cleveland Browns just need a quarterback.
I have a hot take: Brown could run for governor. Or he could try to run for the Senate, challenging whomever Republicans nominate. I have no specific reason to think he’ll do this. But Brown didn’t sound to me like he was done with politics when he gave his concession speech on Tuesday night.
I just don’t think it’s a crazy idea. And it might be the best shot Democrats get for a while.
Another potential candidate, Ohio House Minority Leader Allison Russo, made a point to address reporters Tuesday night after the Ohio Democratic Party’s Election Night event hastily ended following Brown’s concession. She touted Democrats’ success in Franklin County, where they flipped the county’s remaining Republican-held state legislative seats, as something the party might be able to build on in the future.
But she also said she hadn’t yet digested or processed where exactly Democrats went wrong nationally.
“Clearly we need to work on what it means to voters about who Democrats are,” Russo said. “But we win on the issues. There’s no doubt about that.”
What happens with ballot issues in Ohio?
Democrats and Republicans thought Issue 1 might pass on Tuesday. But it failed by around eight percentage points. The result was a victory for Republicans, who managed to win a round after losing twice last year, including the November 2023 vote to enshrine abortion rights in Ohio’s constitution. Groups on both sides believed Republican-drawn ballot language played a key role in getting voters to defeat Issue 1, although the “yes” campaign took it further by saying the language was the only reason it failed.
I’m wondering if the defeat will cause the deep-pocketed liberal groups who propose and bankroll ballot issues in states across the country to reevaluate whether to invest in Ohio again. Something similar happened after a drug liberalization measure failed here in 2018 and then after Trump won for a second time in 2020.
On the other hand, Missouri voters approved an Ohio-esque abortion-rights measure and a joint $15 minimum wage / mandatory sick time measure on Tuesday night. It’s not hard to see wage and sick time measures passing in Ohio. Nebraska voters also approved a similar sick-time issue with 74% of the vote.
But maybe the loss will cause the groups to think twice about funding more wide-ranging changes that would upend Ohio’s political system and threaten the Republican power structure here, like redistricting reform or ranked-choice voting.
Or maybe they’ll just try them in an off-year, when it will be harder to politicize the measures without a presidential race on the ticket.
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